IES. Derive the intertemporal elasticity of
substitution for the following utility funtion
|
u(ct,lt)= |
(ctalt1-a)1-s-1 1-s
| . |
|
Differentiability of the T operator. Show that under
some conditions (specify which) on vm, vm+1 is
differentiable, where
| vm+1( z,k) =
|
max 0 £ k¢ £ f(z,k)
| u[f(z,k)-k¢]+b | å z¢
| G z,z¢ vm(z¢,k¢).
|
|
Linear Approximation to an Euler Equation
Homework 8 is due Tuesday October 14th. Name it H8_Oct_14.
- With Leisure.
Write a linear approximation to the the dynamic first order
condition of the economy in problem 6.h. It should have as
arguments 3 capitals, 2 shocks and 2 leisures (all in deviations
to the steady state.
- Getting rid of Leisure.
Use a linear approximations to the static first order conditions
to get rid of leisure today and tomorrow and end up with 2 shocks
and three capitals.
(Use either a routine to numerical derivatives or a program that
yields symbolic derivates to obtaind the coefficients of linear
approximations.)
Global Approximation to a function with various
methods.
Homework 9 is due Tuesday October 21th. Name it H9_Oct_21.
Take the simple function y = ex on
the interval [1,3].
- Compute a piecewise linear approximation with 20 equally space
pieces.
- Compute a Chebyshev approximation with 10 pieces.
- Compute a standard spline with 10 pieces.
- Compute a Schumaker spline with 10 pieces.
- Report the approximation errors using a Galerkin and a
colocation criteria.
Local approximation to the
neoclassical growth model.
Homework 10 is due Tuesday October 28th. Name it H10_Oct_28.
I recommend that you use matlab (or octave with Uhlig's
toolbox).
Take the simple RBC model of Hansen (1985) with non-convexities (and
lotteries) in labor.
- Calibrate its steady state to have a labor force
participation of 70%. Report the parameters.
Posing the process for the shock from Cooley Prescott (1996).
- Solve the model by log-linearization.
- Simulate 500 samples of length 200, filter them and compare
their statistics with those of the latest 50 years.
- Do the same thing with a steady state labor force
participation of .5.
- Do the same with a process for the shocks that equates the
standard deviation of hp-filtered output volatility between the
model and the date.
- Do the same without the nonconvexity in labor and with
steady state hours calibrated to .25. In this case pose a log
consumption + A log Leisure utility function.
- Discuss your findings.
Simple Transition.
Homework 11 is due Tuesday November 4th. Name it H11_Nov_4.
Take the model of the previous problem with continuous leisure
(10.f) and calculate the necessary TFP (a multiplicative constant to
the production functions) so that in steady state
output is set to be 1. Then report the implied value of
capital. Assume that TFP surprisingly doubles, compute the
transition to the new steady state assuming that the transition is
completed after 400 quarters. Plot the implied paths for the main
macro aggregates and the interest rate. How long does it take for
capital to increase 70% of the total implied increase.
The Aiyagari Economy
An economy has a continuous of agents with idiosyncratic shocks to
earnings. Earnings follow a 4x4 Markov chain (take the numbers from
the transition on wages of Castaneda, Diaz-Gimenez and Rios-Rull
2003). Use a discount rate of .97 and a coefficient of risk aversion
of 2.
- Pose and solve the problem of the household given a
capital labor ratio that yields an interest rate of 2%. Plot the
solution for each shock and wealth. Approximate the decision
rule by a suitable function that induces small errors in the
Euler equation. Make sure that you explain what you are doing.
Make sure that you write the code as subroutines that you can
use without change for answering the rest of this problem.
Homework 12-a is due Tuesday November 11th. Name it
H12a_Nov_11.
- Calculate the steady state (ergodic) distribution implied
by that decision rule both by approximating the distribution
function and by generating a large sample of agents, say
100,000. Comment on the relative difficulty and accuracy of
these two approaches.
Homework 12-b is due Tuesday November 18th. Name it
H12b_Nov_18.
- Solve for the steady state. This implies finding the market
clearing capital labor ratio.
Homework 12-c is due Tuesday November 18th. Name it
H12c_Nov_18.
The Cross-Section Data Problem
Homework 13 is due Thanks Giving day November
27th. Name it H13_Nov_27.
Define a subset of individuals and a year and compute the value of a
labor market variable for such subset of individuals using the
CPS. Compute an expenditure variable for that subset of individuals
using the CEX and a wealth variable using the SCF for the closest
year. Use all three data sets to compute the type of family
in which they live and report them all in a coherent and simple
fashion. Do not do the same thing as the other students in the
class.
The Panel Data Problem
Homework 14 is due Thanks Giving day November
27th. Name it H14_Nov_27.
-
Using the PSID characterize the transition between all relevant
years of a variable for a certain group of people. Say, take those
females that were 22 to 27 in 1970 and report the evolution of
their marital status including children 3 or under, 4 to 6 and 7
to 17.
- Use the NLSY and the HRS and compute the evolution of some
health variable (such as smoking habits) over time. Make sure that
you include the individual persistence of this variable.
Course Description
This course should be thought of as the third course
of the Macro sequence, it follows naturally after 702 and 704. Its
purpose is to learn the map models to data i.e. to answer questions
that we are interested in. Most of these questions are quantitative
in nature and so the type of answers that we will try to give will
also be quantitative. We will develop these tools by stating general
questions, and then discussing how to approach its answer.
The tools that we will be developing beyond those already
covered can be grouped into:
- Theoretical tools. Not all the necessary tools
have been acquired in the first year. We will look at
representative agent models, models with a continuum of agents
represented with measures, overlapping generations models, as well
as models where agents form households. We will look at models
where equilibria are optima and where they are not. We will look at
stationary and non--stationary equilibria. We will look at models
without perfect commitment and without perfect information.
- Empirical tools. A necessary condition to be able
to do applied theory is to be able to characterize some
properties of the world. This involves the capability of
accessing some data and of understanding the way it is
organized as well as the principles that guide the
construction of the main sources. This requires some knowledge of
NIPA and of the way data are organized,
- Computational Tools. Students should be able to
construct and characterize the properties of the equlibrium
allocations of artificial model economies.
- Calibration We will spend a lot of time thinking
of how a model is related to the data. This is I think the
more important part of the learning process. We will
discuss this in much detail.
This is a Ph.D. course not a Masters course. As such students
are not expected to learn what other people have discovered,
but the tools that are needed in order to discover things by
themselves. Because of this reason the active work of the
students is crucial to achieve the objective of mastering the
tools that are described above. This is a course to learn to
do things, and, therefore, it requires to do some things.
Class schedules.
There are regular lectures on every foreseeable Tuesday.
What about knowledge of Computers?
This is not a course in computer languages so students are
responsible to learn to write computer programs. Students are
also responsible for learning their way around McNeil
computational facilities. I do not expect anybody to have a
computer at home or anything like that. It is better to work
in McNeill's computer room because you can talk to each other.
There are three general classes of computer languages.
- Fortran 90. This is the best and more powerfull computer
language. Among economists nobody prefers C. It is a little bit hard
at the beginning (you have to declare variables and the like) but
all students tell it is well worth to learn it as soon as
possible. A very good introduction to fortran can be found
HERE.
- Matlab, Gauss and Octave. These are very popular
packages in economics. They are relatively easy to learn
and code writing is easy. They generate a lot slower code than F90
(about 100 times) but they are probably a good choice to
solve some problems. They may have an interface with
f90 but I have never seen it working. Matlab is
growing at the expense of gauss.
- Mathematica and Maple. These are packages capable of doing
symbolic manipulation of equations. Occasionally they can also be
used to do numeric calculations. It does not hurt to know them.
In the past I have not pushed people hard to learn F90 in addition to
matlab or gauss. Talking with students that took the course previously and
that are in the process of writing their dissertation they recommend
that students should learn languages of all types. I recommend that
homeworks should be asnwered in more than one language. I also
strongly recommend that you learn F90. At least one homework should be
answered in f90.
What about textbooks?
In addition to the standard macro books (Stokey-Lucas-Prescott-89,
Harris-87, Ljungqvist-Sargent-00) I find that there are a few books
of
interest.
- Cooley-Prescott-95. It is now dated but it contains some
important lines of attack on business cycles. The computational
techniques are a little bit obsolete, but the questions less so.
- Judd-98 is a general computational textbook with special
attention to economists. While it is short on some details that we
care about (complicated equilibrium considerations, multidimensional
value functions, multidimensional interpolation) it is a very useful
book for many topics.
- Marimon-Scott-98 has a bunch of chapters that deal with specific
problems. I find the continuous time chapter nice as well as some
scattered other chapters.
- Miranda-Fackler-02 is quite a nice book. Like others it is too
irrelevant in some places and too easy in others. It is designed for
matlab which is a pity, but it has a nice implementation (via a downloadable toolbox) of function global approximations.
Grading Rules and Empirical Requirement.
To satisfactorily complete the course, students will answer all the
homeworks satisfactorily. To pass the empirical requirement, students
have to write a project that will just require a description (not
completion) of an independent paper. For those that do not register
but take the course, I recommend that they do the homeworks. We learn
to solve problems by facing them. Learning jointly with others greatly
speeds the process. The deadline for the Empirical Requirement is the
last day of class.
Syllabus in terms of Economics.
An initial listing of the material that I will cover follows. We will
not follow this order in classes necessarily. This is a conceptual
order not a lectures order. In lectures we will move in and out of the
theory, the computation, the empirical definitions and the calibration.
Things might (and will) be added and deleted, partly reflecting the
audiences' tastes.
- Introduction. What is a Model?
- A measurement tool: How big is bla bla ?
- A device to assess the implications of changes: What
happens if bla bla bla?
- First Question. How big is the contribution of productivity
shocks to aggregate fluctuations: the most basic structure.
- Review of the theory. The optimal growth model. Using
dynamic programming to solve for the optimal allocation.
The second welfare theorem. A Recursive version of the
second welfare theorem.
- Computation of the model. This will involve the
review of more than one method to solve a functional equation.
- Solving for the Value function.
- Linear quadratic. Uhlig-95,
Hansen-Prescott-95.
- Discretization of the state space. Brute force
iteration. Other ways: Trick-Zin-93.
- Splines. Trick-Zin-97.
- Piecewise linearization.
- Other.
- Solving for the Euler Equations.
- Piecewise linearization. Wherever.
- Other. McGrattan-97 in Marimon-Scott-98.
- Calibration of the model. This is the most important
part of the chapter. So far calibration has been a
tainted word with too many meanings. We will introduce a
very disciplined approach to restrict the model
quantitatively. Cooley-Prescott-96.
- Another question. What are the implications of increasing wage
inequality? (Heathcote-Storesletten-Violante-03, Krueger-Perri-01)
- How to measure wage dispersion? Temporary versus
permanent changes.
- Transition, deterministic evolution over time. Convergence to
a new steady state.
- Extensions to the basic question. Does feature bla bla
matter? We will review a few of them to learn about other
classes of economies, which means both a new set of
calibration and computational issues.
- The use of lotteries to convexify and to have heterogeneity
within the representative agent structure (Indivisible
labor. Hansen-85, Kydland and Prescott-91, Osuna-Rios-Rull-01.)
- Monetary Distrubances. Cooley-Hansen-88, Chang-95,
Altig-Carlstrom-91, Freeman-Kydland-98.
- S,s investment policies. Veracierto-97 and other investment
multiplant environments.
- OLG Models. We will look at the basic Auerbach-Kotlikoff-87
model in the context of, say, a steady state social security
question, or a general taxation question, Fullerton-Rogers-93.
- Demographics. Wage profiles.
- Demographics. Marital Status. Cubeddu-Rios-Rull-95,
Cubeddu-Rios-Rull-03.
- Demographics. Children. Hong-Rios-Rull-04
- Economies with measures of agents. Steady states and transition.
- The size of precautionary savings. Aiyagari-94.
- Wealth and income inequality.
Castañeda-Díaz-Giménez-Ríos-Rull-03,
DeNardi-03.
- Tax redistribution.
Castañeda-Díaz-Giménez-Ríos-Rull-03,
Conesa-Krueger-03.
- Economies with measures of agents. Aggregate Fluctuations.
- Business cycles. Krusell-Smith-97, Krusell-Smith-98,
Rios-Rull in Marimon-Scott-97,
Castañeda-Díaz-Giménez-Ríos-Rull-98.
- Non-concave problems. Technical difficulties.
- Entrpreneurship, creation and destruction of
firms. Quadrini-97, Cooley-Quadrini-98a, Basaluzzo-04,
Terajima-04.
- Durable goods and housing. Diaz-Luengo-02,
Fdez-Villaverde-Krueger-01, Rady-Ortalo-Magne-03, Nakajima-04.
- Marriage choice. Burdett-Coles-01, Regalia-Rios-Rull-01,
Rios-Rull-Seitz-04,
Rios-Rull-Wong-04. Aiyagari-Greenwood-Guner-97, Knowles-98,
Regalia-Rios-Rull-98.
- Bankruptcy. Agents have the option to file for
bankrutpcy or not. Chatterjee-Corbae-Nakajima-Rios-Rull-03,
- Bankruptcy and private
information. Chatterjee-Corbae-Rios-Rull-04.
- Positive theory of Policy models.
- The problem under commitment. Chari-Christiano-Kehoe-95.
- Markov equilibria without commitment, the
GEE. Klein-Krusell-Rios-Rull-03.
- Non-Markov Equilibria without
Commitment. Fdez-Villaverde-Tsivinsky-03. Phelan-Stachetii-01.
- Debt without commitment, non concavities
galore. Krusell-Martin-Rios-Rull-03.
- Incentive problems. Kocherlakota-Tsivinsky-?-02. Others.
Syllabus in terms of Computational Tools.
- Basic Numerical Problems
- One-dimensional Interpolation
- Multi-dimensional Interpolation
- Solution of one Equation.
- Solution of Equation systems.
- Numerical Derivatives.
- Integration.
- Functional Equations.
- Local linear approximations
- Local non-linear approximations
- Discretizations
- Other more sophisticated methods (collocation, etc etc more
later).
- Storage of measures.
- The approximation of measures (distribution functions)
- Sampling.
- Forecasting of prices via moments.
- Linear regressions.
- Other.
- Data manipulation (EVIEWS, STATA, SAS, GAUSS, F90, MATLAB)
- Understanding data sets
- Reading data sets
- Processing the information..
Sites and material of interest
to people in this class.
Readings
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull <vr0j@econ.upenn.edu>