My primary research interests are in the formulation of dynamic equilibrium models, their efficient computation, and their estimation, in particular using machine learning. However, I have also worked on issues related to monetary economics, economic history and political economy.

Below you can get pdf copies of my papers and codes for reproducing some of the computations involved.

New Items

March 19, 2024. A first version of the paper “Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and its Causal Effects,” with Tomohide Mineyama and Dongho Song here.

The figure above plots our estimated index of geopolitical fragmentation. You can get the data here. You are free to use the index, but please do cite us.

March 8, 2024. A new version of the paper “Technological Synergies, Heterogenous Firms, and Idiosyncratic Volatility,” with Yang Yu and Francesco Zanetti here.

February 29, 2024. The paper “Navigating by Falling Stars: Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates,” with Rodolfo Campos, Galo Nuño, and Peter Paz can be found here.

February 21, 2024. The paper “The Distributional Effects of Asset Returns,” with Oren Levintal can be found here.

January 31, 2024. The paper “The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory,” with Xiwen Bai, Yiliang Li, and Francesco Zanetti can be found here (large file, it will take a few seconds to load). Slides here. The Wall Street Journal has covered our empirical results here and Omnia here.

January 31, 2024. A new version of my paper “Dynamic Programming in Economics on a Quantum Annealer,” with Isaiah Hull can be found here. We changed the title of the paper to emphasize that we develop novel algorithms specifically designed for quantum annealers (QAs) (standard classical algorithms such as VFI do not even run on QAs). To demonstrate how these algorithms work, we do solve an RBC model in an actual QA. This is perhaps the hardest model that can be solved with the current generation of QAs, but our algorithm is fully scalable to higher dimensions when the new generations of QAs come online. We run our code on Advantage, the QA produced by D-Wave Systems, with 5000 qubits. Also, a link to the github repo. Finally, a 50-minute talk based on the paper can be found below:

January 17, 2024. The final version paper “Central Bank Digital Currency: When Price and Bank Stability Collide” (now forthcoming at the Journal of Monetary Economics) with Linda Schilling and Harald Uhlig can be found here. Now we include a new and very nice decentralization with firms and private banks in Section 6. The slides are here. A short summary for a CEPR e-book can be found here.

November 19, 2023. A new paper “The Wealth of Working Nations,” with Gustavo Ventura and Wen Yao can be found here and slides here. Some coverage at the Wall Street Journal, here. The Wall Street Journal has covered our empirical results here.

July 1, 2023. A (new) presentation on large language models in economics,” here. Also, the video (which covers most of the material in the presentation) can be found here:

July 1, 2023. A (new) presentation that summarizes much of my recent research “Taming the Curse of Dimensionality: Old Ideas and New Strategies,” here.

June 8, 2023. A new version of the paper “A Model of the Gold Standard,” with Daniel Sanches can be found here.

June 4, 2023. A new paper “The Neoclassical Growth of China,” with Lee Ohanian and Wen Yao here.

May 27, 2023. Slides for my new paper “Between the East and the West: The Life and Work of Alfred Zauberman,” with Andrej Svorenčík here. A draft will come soon!

May 25, 2023. A new paper “Accounting for the Duality of the Italian Economy,” with Dario Laudati, Lee Ohanian, and Vincenzo Quadrini here.

May 18, 2023. A new version of my paper “Inequality and the Zero Lower Bound,” with Joël Marbet, Galo Nuño, and Omar Rachedi here.

November 12, 2022. A first version new paper “Ricardian Business Cycles,” with Lorenzo Bretscher and Simon Scheidegger here.

October 21, 2022 (a). A new paper “Spooky Boundaries at a Distance: Exploring Transversality and Stability with Deep Learning,” with Mahdi Ebrahimi Kahou, Sebastián Gómez-Cardona, Jesse Perla, and Jan Rosa here.

October 21, 2022 (b). A new paper “Filtering with Limited Information,” with Thorsten Drautzburg, Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, and Dick Oosthuizen can be found here.

October 6, 2022. A new paper “Differentiable State-Space Models and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Estimation,” with David Childers, Jesse Perla, Christopher Rackauckas, and Peifan Wu can be found here. The Github repo with the relevant packages is here.

August 25, 2022. My MFS guest lecture “Machine Learning for Macrofinance” can be found here. Also, the video can be found here:

August 25, 2020. A much updated version of my paper “The Fractured-Land Hypothesis” with Mark Koyama, Youhong Lin, and Tuan-Hwee Sng can be found here. Also, a VoxEU column here and a 15-minute video summarizing (a slightly older version of) the paper can be found here and below:

June 16, 2022. My paper “Politics and Income Distribution” with Thorsten Drautzburg and Pablo Guerrón-Quintana can be found here.

June 16, 2022. An updated version of my paper “Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution” with Galo Nuño and Samuel Hurtado can be found here. The slides are here.

April 21, 2022. An updated version of my paper “Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Fiscal Policy” with Federico Mandelman, Yang Yu, and Francesco Zanetti can be found here.

April 4, 2022. A new paper “Programming FPGAs for Economics: An Introduction to Electrical Engineering Economics,” with Bhagath Cheela, André DeHon, and Alessandro Peri can be found here and the companion tutorial here.

March 7, 2022. A new paper “The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes,” with Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, and Minchul Shin can be found here. It supersedes “Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs,” which can be found here for the record.

November 7, 2021. An updated version of my paper “Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space” with Matthew J. Delventhal and Nezih Guner can be found here. We also have a companion web page with all the data set here.

November 6, 2021. The slides “Deep Learning for Macroeconomists,” a plenary talk I have prepared for several events, can be found here. See, also, under teaching, the slides for my course on machine learning for macroeconomics.

July 30, 2021. The paper “Has Machine Learning Rendered Simple Rules Obsolete?,” can be found here. A summary for the general public is here. The slides (with the old title) are here.

June 22, 2021. The new paper “Exploiting Symmetry in High-Dimensional Dynamic Programming,” with Mahdi Ebrahimi Kahou, Jesse Perla, and Arnav Sood can be found here. The slides are here and the Github repo is here. Also, a 63 minutes video summarizing the paper can be found here:

Handbook Chapters Machine Learning in Macroeconomics Dynamic Macroeconomics Monetary Economics Macrofinance and Asset Prices Computation of Dynamic Equilibrium Models Estimation of Dynamic Equilibrium Models Geoeconomics Epidemiological Economics European Economics, Political Economy, and the Euro Crisis Law and Economics, Policy