Margaret Berczynski
Jacek Kuron, distinguished statesman and participant in Polish political events for over 30 years, met recently with a Polish-speaking audience in Philadelphia. He admitted to be lost in the current shifting Polish political scene, a scene additionally complicated by the coming presidential elections. Asked about his election plans, he said that he would like the job of prime minister, in which he could realize his political program without too much interference from a President. Jacek Kuron shared wi th the audience his opinion of the present Polish political developments, frequently explaining the present state of affairs in terms of the constraints resulting from taking over from the communist government. The economy was ruined, inflation was high, industry was in decline, and agriculture was not working effectively. The first post-communist government, in which Kuron was the most popular minister (a popularity he has preserved to the present day), was confronted with serious problems either creat ed, or not solved, by the previous rulers, which made the work of the new cabinet difficult. There were mistakes, Kuron admitted. He agreed that his bill regulating unemployment was too liberal, and that many workers accustomed to the command economy to ok advantage of it. Kuron claimed that the current economic position of Poland is one of the best in Central and Eastern Europe. The Polish economy has the fastest growth ratio. An increasing number of people work in the private sector, which successfu lly competes with Western companies. According to him, people are showing initiative and are taking care of their future.
There are also difficult problems, such as agriculture and housing. Agriculture is not competitive and is difficult to change, particularly now, when the prime minister, representing the agricultural party, protects the status quo. Housing is inherited from communists, when “housing cooperatives” acted as investor, develope r, contractor, owner, and administrator of resources, and were not cost effective. Jacek Kuron presented his program on how to improve the present situation.
Michael Little
On November 21, 1994, the EAST Center hosted Lawrence R.Klein, Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania and Nobel Laureate, for the second Center-sponsored lecture. He spoke on “Economic Estimates fo r Transition Economies,” with emphasis on China and Eastern Europe. According to Professor Klein, there was not a uniform path from plan to market, and that some countries were more suited to shock therapy than others. China has had much success so far in controlling the transformation from plan to market. Also important is that China is an example of capitalism not being dependent on democracy. In contrast, many countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union had no top-down plan for the transition, and their economies are doing rather poorly. Professor Klein proposed a hypothetical scenario for the late 1980s in which the government of the former Soviet Union planned gradual steps toward a market economy while its republics were still intact, and it was not yet a major player i n the world economy. If it had followed a good plan, there may not have been the chaos that exists in Russia and its former republics today. In the question-and-answer period, Klein noted that China had an advantage over most other countries in its abil ity to dictate the pace of economic transition, since its government has a greater ability to control its population than the former Soviet Union; also China has such a large peasant population, which is easier to control than populations in urban industr ial regions. China can introduce higher-wage jobs at a controlled pace. And, when wages in China get too high, the low-skilled industry will go to south Asia, namely Sri Lanka, India, and Bangladesh. After this, Professor Klein predicted, the job flow would perhaps go to Africa. The lecture provided a very useful perspective on markets, plans, and their combined role in the world economy.