.
At the end of 1994 retail prices will be 5-7 times higher than in December 1993. Currently, 32% of families fall below the official poverty level. The level of consumption is extremely low. In the beginning of 1994, meat and fish consumption was at the level of the 1960s, and milk and diary products were at the level of the 1950s [10]. In 1993 the deaths exceeded the births by 0.8 million people. In 1994 this difference may increase to one million [5].The forecast of LINK-project [12] expects Russia to begin her recovery in 1997. Our forecast is based on a general GNP trend fitted for the former Soviet bloc countries and it coincides with that of LINK. We argue that the reasonable forecast is feasible (though very difficult) as long as the GNP and consumption levels remain above an unknown but "really existing" borderline. We refer to this line as a recession threshold. Intuitively we set that threshold at the level of about 50-55% of the 1986 production levels. Should Russia cross this line, anything can happen. Beyond this line all forecasts, no matter how sophisticated, become equally probable (or equally improbable).